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Catalyst Map
Thursday, March 19, 2026
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NVIDIA Catalyst Map — next 12 months
Last updated:
2025-12-27
• Time horizon: 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31
Executive summary (top catalysts by expected impact):
NVDA
Blackwell Ultra (GB300 / B300) ramp-through 2026
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-30
Est. move: 0% to 8%
(range; not a forecast)
Positive
75% likelihood
NVDA
GTC 2026 (keynote + platform roadmap risk/reward)
2026-03-16 → 2026-03-19
Est. move: -2% to 6%
(range; not a forecast)
Positive
90% likelihood
NVDA
U.S. political scrutiny on China AI GPU exports (license process / optics)
2026-01-01 → 2026-04-30
Est. move: -7% to 2%
(range; not a forecast)
Negative
65% likelihood
NVDA
OpenAI partnership: Phase 1 targeted online in 2H 2026 (Vera Rubin platform)
2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: 0% to 7%
(range; not a forecast)
Positive
60% likelihood
NVDA
Rubin CPX expected availability (end of 2026)
2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: -2% to 8%
(range; not a forecast)
Positive
45% likelihood
NVDA
Capital return / buyback commentary (ongoing; could accelerate post-print)
2026-02-25 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: 0% to 3%
(range; not a forecast)
Positive
50% likelihood
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Shows catalysts overlapping the window.
Impact direction
Positive
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Uncertain
Probability threshold
≥ 0%
Category
Earnings & Guidance
Regulation / Geopolitics
Product / Platform
Conference / Visibility
Partner Deployments
Legend
Bubble size
: estimated magnitude (|% move| proxy)
Color
: bull / bear / uncertain
Note
: price-impact ranges are scenario-based, not targets.
Timeline
Hover a point for details. Click a card below for full context.
8 catalysts
Catalyst cards
Each catalyst includes what it is, why it matters, timing, likelihood, price-impact range, and sources.
NVDA
Blackwell Ultra (GB300 / B300) ramp-through 2026
Positive
Product / Platform
Timing:
2026-01-01 → 2026-09-30
Est. move: 0% to 8%
(range; not a forecast)
75% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
U.S. political scrutiny on China AI GPU exports (license process / optics)
Negative
Regulation / Geopolitics
Timing:
2026-01-01 → 2026-04-30
Est. move: -7% to 2%
(range; not a forecast)
65% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
China H200 export licensing / potential shipments
Uncertain
Regulation / Geopolitics
Timing:
2026-02-01 → 2026-03-31
Est. move: -6% to 6%
(range; not a forecast)
55% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
Q4 FY26 financial results
Uncertain
Earnings & Guidance
Timing:
2026-02-25
Est. move: -8% to 10%
(range; not a forecast)
95% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
Capital return / buyback commentary (ongoing; could accelerate post-print)
Positive
Earnings & Guidance
Timing:
2026-02-25 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: 0% to 3%
(range; not a forecast)
50% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
GTC 2026 (keynote + platform roadmap risk/reward)
Positive
Conference / Visibility
Timing:
2026-03-16 → 2026-03-19
Est. move: -2% to 6%
(range; not a forecast)
90% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
OpenAI partnership: Phase 1 targeted online in 2H 2026 (Vera Rubin platform)
Positive
Partner Deployments
Timing:
2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: 0% to 7%
(range; not a forecast)
60% likelihood
Expand details
NVDA
Rubin CPX expected availability (end of 2026)
Positive
Product / Platform
Timing:
2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31
Est. move: -2% to 8%
(range; not a forecast)
45% likelihood
Expand details
Disclosures / caveats
This dashboard is a catalyst map, not investment advice.
Probabilities are subjective and based on public info (see sources).
Price-impact ranges are scenario estimates; market reaction can differ materially.
For unconfirmed dates, watch official IR updates and SEC filings.